Analysing possible outcomes in the Dutch, French and German elections as well as Britain's triggering of Article 50 to kick-start Brexit and Greece's debt negotiations, Credit Suisse strategists offered three scenarios for Europe's immediate future.The 'negative' option has Greece struggle for more debt funding and anti-immigration nationalist Le Pen president.'Credit Suisse strategists take the view that the French presidential election...In this scenario, France's centrist and upstart candidate Emmanuel Macron wins the country's presidential election but has trouble carving out a governing mandate.Credit Suisse said it will update its 'Risk Barometer' regularly to reflect levels of systemic risk in European bond and equity markets.poses the most important risk for Europe this year,' the bank said in a statement, referring to the April 23 vote, with a second round set for May 7 if needed.'Any narrowing of the polls in Le Pen's favour will create a high degree of volatility in the markets,' it added.Scenario one, billed as 'positive' by Switzerland's number two bank, sees pro-European, centrist candidates winning in France and Germany when the key continental powers vote in April and September, respectively.ETA has undergone several Swiss government investigations due to its market position.
The 'central scenario' sees the Greek bailout negotiations 'drag on' through the summer without definitive resolution and struggles in the Dutch parliament to form a coalition.
Far-right French presidential election candidate Marine Le Pen poses the biggest threat to European stability, Credit Suisse has said.
Switzerland's second largest bank warned of the implications of a win for the National Front, in a guide published to help investors navigate the upcoming 'defining' months facing the continent.
Credit Suisse is relocating its Dutch investment banking team from Amsterdam to London as the Swiss bank seeks to improve efficiency and profitability, a source familiar with matter said.
The Dutch newspaper , the first to report the news, said around six investment bankers would be impacted by the move.
Brexit has put the brakes on UK commercial property investment for most overseas buyers but for those from the Middle East, the subsequent slump in the pound and a rebound in commodities outweighs the risk to values.