Since many sediment cores are currently analyzed, using different data sets and prior distributions, a robust (adaptive) MCMC is very useful.We use the t-walk (Christen and Fox, 2010), a self adjusting, robust MCMC sampling algorithm, that works acceptably well in many situations.2009) as well as the less smoothed Int Cal98 dataset (Stuiver et al. Various permutations excluding samples identified as outliers using the Outlier_Model ("SSimple", N(0,2),0,"s" ) with (Bronk Ramsey 2009) were also run. Calculated fit ranges for Relative Year (RY) 1 of the 213-year chronology according to a variety of models using Ox Cal and either Int Cal09 or Int Cal98.Models 1–5 start with the 16-date-set; Models 6–10 start with the larger 22-date-set. The best fit for the Constantinople dendrochronology computed by Ox Cal using the 16-date set (excluding dates from sample YMK-359) based on Model 3 (Figure 5) minus the three outlying dates (indicated with the orange arrows) — data positioned according to the mean (µ) of the marginal posterior probability distribution (see Inset).
In addition, we have statistically modelled previously published radiocarbon determinations for Yafteh Cave (Iran) and Shanidar Cave (Iraqi Kurdistan), to improve their chronological resolution and enable us to compare the results with the new dataset.
Two ΔR tests with a neutral offset test (of 0±20) indicate no substantive offset is relevant. The datum at RY93.5 is the one very clear outlying value, and it is probably relevant that this sample was also noted as having fungal contamination (not observed on the other samples).
The boxes below show: (i) the calendar placement of the 213-year dendrochronology (with Relative Year = RY1 at AD 402) within the 95.4% probability fit region from Model 3; and (ii) the calendar placement of the 213-year dendrochronology (with Relative Year = RY1 at AD 403) within the 95.4% probability fit region from Model 10. C measurements had previously been obtained on another sample from the chronology (YMK-359).
Hd = Heidelberg Radiocarbon Laboratory (for sample preparation and measurement, see Kromer et al. MAMS = AMS measurement at the Klaus-Tschira-Labor-Curt-Engelhorn-Zentrum Archaeometrie, Mannheim (Kromer et al. For the C data and placement of the 10-year tree-ring samples (mid-points) within the 213-year chronology.
Hd = Heidelberg Radiocarbon Laboratory (for sample preparation and measurement, see Kromer et al. MAMS = AMS measurement at the Klaus-Tschira-Labor-Curt-Engelhorn-Zentrum Archaeometrie, Mannheim (Kromer et al. For the C measurements on 10-year samples of wood from five of the cross-dated elements of the chronology (YMK-353, SMK-659, SOF-14, IRN-4 and YMT-263) with the tree-ring- (calendar-) defined sequence (Figures 3 & 4) and the current northern hemisphere C calibration dataset (Int Cal09: Reimer et al.
Radiocarbon dating is routinely used in paleoecology to build chronologies of lake and peat sediments, aiming at inferring a model that would relate the sediment depth with its age.